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ECB Insight: An Expanded Forecast Horizon, A Smaller Policy Role

ECB Insight: An Expanded Forecast Horizon, A Smaller Policy Role

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The ECB will soon unveil its first staff projections for 2028, complete with a revised profile of the inflation impact of ETS 2. On paper, that should be a big moment: an extra year of forecast, a new carbon-price shock and an inflation target that is supposed to be symmetric. In practice, Governing Council members are working to make sure it is not.

26 November 2025

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

26 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 28 November 2025

ECB Tone Meter

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting