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ECB Insight: Optionality Without a Tilt
– With rates to remain unchanged, Thursday’s press conference is mainly a test of message discipline. Recent news has...
ECB BLS: Credit Standards Tighten for Firms and Consumers in Q4 2025, Further Tightening Seen in Q1 2026
– The European Central Bank’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS), released on Tuesday, showed that banks tightened credit...
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ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Dovish Tilt Emerges Ahead of the Quiet Period
– The ECB’s tone in our ECB Tone Meter moved slightly dovish this week, both for the Governing Council overall and for...
Exclusives
Transcript of Chat with ECB Governing Council Member Šimkus on 28 January 2026
By David Barwick – VILNIUS (Econostream) – Following is the transcript of a brief chat on Wednesday, 28 January 2026 with European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus, chairman of the Bank of Lithuania:
28 January 2026
Exclusive: ECB’s Šimkus: “To Say We Need to Adjust Policy Because the Euro Is at $1.19 Is an Oversimplification”
By David Barwick – VILNIUS (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus on Wednesday rejected calls to react too quickly to the strengthening of the euro versus the dollar.
28 January 2026Insights
ECB Insight: Optionality Without a Tilt
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With rates to remain unchanged, Thursday’s press conference is mainly a test of message discipline. Recent news has been the kind that some observers treat as inviting reactive messaging, but for months the European Central Bank has kept its tone firmly neutral, and that is the posture we expect again this week.
3 February 2026
ECB Insight: Euro Strength No Near-Term Trigger for the ECB
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – A rapid euro climb toward the psychologically loaded $1.20 area has reopened a recurring question: when does an exchange rate move become a monetary policy problem?
29 January 2026
ECB Insight: Rehn’s Post-Vujčić Path to Board Seat Runs Through Spain
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić’s elevation to the ECB vice presidency has turned Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn’s next opportunity into a conditional one. The calendar leaves room for at most one more smaller-country appointment before late 2028, and whether that path exists depends critically on what Spain manages to claim in the 2027 succession contest.
26 January 2026
ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Dovish Shift Driven by Tariff Threats and Chinese Rerouting Fears
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB's tone in our ECB Tone Meter moved slightly dovishly for the Governing Council as a whole and the Executive Board alone, settling at +0.04 and +0.12 respectively, though both remain in positive – i.e. hawkish – territory.
23 January 2026ECB Tone Meter
Entire Governing Council
27 MembersVery Dovish
Very Hawkish
Executive Board
6 MembersVery Dovish
Very Hawkish
Evolution
Governing Council vs. Executive Board
As of 4 February 2026
ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Dovish Tilt Emerges Ahead of the Quiet Period
By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB’s tone in our ECB Tone Meter moved slightly dovish this week, both for the Governing Council overall and for the Executive Board, as the quiet period began on Thursday. The former settled at 0.00, effectively neutral, while the latter eased to +0.05, remaining marginally positive and therefore still slightly hawkish.
30 January 2026