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Exclusive: ECB’s Demarco: “June Is the More Natural Horizon for Judgment”

Exclusive: ECB’s Demarco: “June Is the More Natural Horizon for Judgment”

By David Barwick and Marta Vilar – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – June, rather than the April 30 policy meeting, would be the more appropriate point for the European Central Bank to judge whether the war-driven energy shock is feeding through into broader inflation, according to ECB Governing Council member Alexander Demarco.

17 April 2026

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Central Bank News

April 17

ECB’s Lagarde: War Has Made Outlook “Significantly More Uncertain”

ECB’s Lagarde: War Has Made Outlook “Significantly More Uncertain”

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Friday said the war in the Middle East had made the outlook “significantly more uncertain” and reiterated that the ECB would stay data-dependent and refrain from pre-committing to any rate path.

17 April 2026
ECB’s Müller: No “Obvious Case” Yet to Raise Rates

ECB’s Müller: No “Obvious Case” Yet to Raise Rates

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller on Friday said the ECB must remain alert to inflation risks from the war in Iran but does not yet have a clear basis for raising interest rates.

17 April 2026

Debt Issuance News

March 25

March 18

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

27 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 17 April 2026

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting

Insights

ECB Insight: An April Hold Does Not Necessarily Bring a June Hike

ECB Insight: An April Hold Does Not Necessarily Bring a June Hike

By David Barwick – WASHINGTON (Econostream) – With April increasingly looking like a meeting the European Central Bank’s Governing Council is keeping alive out of convention rather than conviction, June now risks being treated as the move that inevitably follows. That may be too simplistic.

16 April 2026
ECB Insight: Lagarde’s No Tightening Bias: Dovish or Dumbish?

ECB Insight: Lagarde’s No Tightening Bias: Dovish or Dumbish?

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – We argued on March 27 that European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel had given the Governing Council “room to wait.” On April 1 we said April 30 still looked live, but that it sounded “less and less like the ECB is trying to lead markets there,” a point we sharpened further on April 7 and April 8 . President Christine Lagarde’s Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday strongly reinforces that line.

14 April 2026
ECB Insight: Dolenc Adds to Evidence of Little Appetite for Hiking

ECB Insight: Dolenc Adds to Evidence of Little Appetite for Hiking

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Our Insights on April 7 , April 1 and March 27 argued that recent European Central Bank Governing Council communication had increasingly come to sound like that of a body dutifully keeping April 30 live while sounding reluctant to move then. Bank of Slovenia Governor Primož Dolenc’s podcast comments on Wednesday reinforce that impression — despite almost certainly having been recorded before the overnight ceasefire between the United States and Iran.

8 April 2026
ECB Insight: Villeroy Can Finally Afford to Be Honest About Rate Hikes

ECB Insight: Villeroy Can Finally Afford to Be Honest About Rate Hikes

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – It’s easy to picture some of those listening to European Central Bank Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau’s speech last Thursday doing a double-take on hearing him say that the next change in ECB interest rates was probably destined to be a hike.

7 April 2026